The 2023 U.S. corn harvest could be the second largest on record as rains during July shepherded the crop through its critical development phase, offsetting dry conditions early in the season and hot summer temperatures, according to analysts and farmers.
Farmers report that drought-tolerant genes and other improvements in genetically-modified corn allowed the crop to weather severe drought across much of the Midwest. Genetically-modified corn accounts for more than 90% of the U.S. crop.
"With the technology that we have in the seed, the corn hung in there a lot better than people expected," said Drew DeSutter, who farms about 4,000 acres with his family in western Illinois. "I think we will probably have overall decent to good crops."
Analysts expect the U.S. government in their next monthly report to cut its forecast for domestic corn production to 15.135 billion bushels this year, from its July estimate for a record high 15.320 billion.
The new forecast, if achieved, would be the second biggest harvest ever, behind the 2016 harvest of 15.148 billion bushels. Average yields were seen at 175.5 bushels per acre this year, which would be the fourth-biggest ever.
The percentage of corn rated good-to-excellent this year by the USDA in weekly reports rose by 4 percentage points during July, when the bulk of the crop in major Midwest production states passes through its yield-determining pollination stage.
In the previous 30 years, good-to-excellent ratings for the corn crop had risen in July only six times.
Farmers and analysts predict the early dryness will still cause some drag to yields. The good-to-excellent ratings of 55% on July 30 were the lowest for that time of year since the major drought year of 2012.
"It has just been a roller coaster of a growing season," said Eric Honselman, a farmer who grows corn and soybeans near Casey, Illinois. "I just wish Mother Nature would make up her mind."
EDITOR’S TAKE:
With a large corn crop in Brazil and one in the U.S. this fall, corn prices could decline as harvest progresses. That said, for those with larger than expected yields, the price decline would be offset by higher yields. It appears that farmers are going to have another very solid year financially. Large crop, declining input costs, and land values up over 9% in the Mid-west all add up to some very happy farmers/ranchers. When they are happy and looking for those year-end tax breaks, be ready, as they will be in a spending mood. Farmers/ranchers love new trucks! Make sure your inventory is on AgTruckTrader.com (AgTT). AgTT was built specifically to help you target farmer/rancher customers in your area. It’s free to all CAD members, so be sure to give it a try if you haven’t already!
