The USDA has lowered its new crop ending stocks estimates for corn and soybeans, while raising the outlook for wheat.
New crop corn ending stocks were 5 million lower than June, but still 2.097 billion bushels, with the USDA cutting old crop ending stocks and raising feed and export use estimates, partially canceling out higher production.
New crop soybean ending stocks are seen at 435 million bushels, 20 million less than last month on lower production and old crop supplies.
The corn and soybean production numbers are based on the USDA’s June planted area numbers using trend-line yields.
Wheat ending stocks are pegged at 856 million bushels, up 98 million following increases for production and old crop stocks, despite higher feed and export use estimates.
The 2024/25 U.S. marketing year started June 1st for wheat and gets underway September 1st for corn and soybeans.
The USDA made modest, but notable, changes to the global corn, soybean, and wheat outlooks.
Corn and soybean production estimates for Argentina were slightly lower in June due to harvest results, while there were no changes for either crop for Brazil, leaving those guesses well above the most recent CONAB update.
USDA also cut corn exports for Argentina, while increasing soybean export projections for Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay, and boosting China’s soybean import guess for this marketing year and leaving next marketing year steady, for now.
For new crop wheat, production estimates were higher for Argentina and Canada, lower for the European Union, with the export guess up for Canada and down for the E.U.
EDITOR’S TAKE:
Where do all of these estimates leave us – overall, not much change. A slight adjustment here and there, but nothing that substantially moves markets. Slightly lower ending stocks in the U.S. for corn and soybeans is offset by increases in other nations. Wheat may be more problematic since most of the estimates (guesses) show an up pattern for production. Once again, we will have to wait until harvest is complete and we see how the U.S. dollar fares compared to other competitor currencies. The U.S. still has a significant edge in crop quality, but what others are willing to pay for that advantage depends on currency differentials – the relative strength or weakness of the U.S. dollar. In the meantime, be sure to push your truck inventory on AgTruckTrader.com®. After all, farmers/ranchers will sell their crops and eventually be on the hunt for that new or qualified used vehicle on your lot!
