Which Is More Likely in 2026: Corn Yield Above 200 or Below 160?

The national average corn yield crossed the 180 bushels per acre (bpa) threshold for the first time in 2025. At 186.5 bpa, the crop was also a 7-bushel leap over the previous high (179.3 bpa in 2024). Also notable, 2025’s leap came after 11 years during which the national average ranged just 11.8 bpa (167.5 in 2019 to 179.3 in 2024).

For producers, the extreme production outcomes come to mind when building marketing plans or crop budget scenarios. For instance, you don’t have to look very far on social media each summer to find people pondering whether conditions will repeat when the national yield was 123.1 bpa.

To consider the range of those extreme outcomes, economists set out to consider the following:

Which outcome is more likely for the U.S. corn yields in 2026, above 200 bpa or below 160 bpa?

The data

To answer the question, there are two potential data sources to consider. The first is the 2026 growing season conditions. It’s very early in the growing season, but a few signals are available (planting pace, drought-monitor conditions, long-range forecasts). By June or July, however, these will be much more insightful.

The other data source, especially given the time of year, is historical data. As outlined in the 2026 Corn and Soybean Yield Guide, trendline analysis helps translate historical observations into relevant benchmarks for 2026.

Table 1 ranks annual yields since 1988 from lowest to highest. Instead of repeating the reported yield directly, the table reports the departure from the trendline. With a yield 35 bpa below the trendline, 2012 stands out. At the other extreme, corn yields in 2004 were more than 18 bpa above the trendline.

The final column in Table 1 shows what the year’s departure from trend would be in 2026 terms (trendline starting point of 187.0 bpa). Like adjusting observed prices in 2012 for inflation to provide context to current dollar or purchasing power, this method provides context for how the 2012 and 2004 growing seasons’ conditions would perform with 2026 genetic and general yield improvements.

Cycling back to the questions of which outcome is more likely, only one historical observation would line up with a national yield of less than 160 bpa in 2026. While it’s easy to remember published yields were 123.1 bpa that year, it’s also easy to lose track of the annual trend yield’s 2.1 bpa bump each year, adding up over the last 14 years.

At the other extreme, historic observations (2004, 1994, 1992) would convert to a 2026 yield of more than 200 bpa.

Table 1. Calculated U.S. corn yield departure from the trendline and equivalent yield in 2026 terms. 1988 to 2025. Data sources: USDA NASS and AEI.ag calculations.

Wrapping it up

It’s human nature to speculate about the range of possible yield outcomes, especially when margins are tight, and higher prices would improve the profitability outlook. However, if one doesn’t trend-adjust historical yields, years like 2012 can skew expectations, making yields below, say, 160 bpa seem more likely than what a trend adjustment would suggest.

The flip side of that coin is that recent conditions could lead us to think that 2025 is the high end of the range of outcomes. But buried near the middle of Table 1 is how 2025 ranks historically. Despite all the headlines written, it’s unlikely that 2025 U.S. corn (and soybean) yields will be talked about much beyond 2026.

Of course, trendlines aren’t perfect. First, they can move around over time. Second, there is never-ending speculation that the trendline is either losing relevance due to new genetic potential or becoming harder to maintain over time. There are also management trends related to trendline potential, such as where corn is being grown and the recent plateau in corn seeding rates.

The point isn’t to argue that the probability of a national corn yield above 200 bpa is higher than yields below 160 or even 170 bpa. Instead, it’s to point out that the trendline’s starting point of 187.0 bpa is higher than most of us would initially guess. (For context, the USDA used a starting point of 183.0 back in February). And, perhaps more important, the range of potential outcomes is higher than we might initially assume. It is best to use extreme caution with national projections – or balance sheet what-if scenarios – that use corn yields below 170 bpa or 160 bpa. While statistically possible, this would represent an extreme outcome.

EDITOR’S TAKE:

Much speculation about extremes, but the fact remains that no one knows for sure how the yields will turn out come harvest time this fall. The more likely bet is that the range will statistically fall within a much smaller range of maybe three to five bushels either side of the longer-term trend line. That said, perhaps the larger question is what would a swing of three to five bushels per acre mean to the producer. Assuming exports continue to grow, domestic utilization, especially for ethanol, grows and ending supply stocks are down, a lower yield could boost prices by as much as $1.00 per bushel according to some experts. On the other hand, higher yields, using the same assumptions, would likely keep prices at or near current levels. The real key is Mother Nature and demand for corn.

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