U.S. corn and soybean production are down from September 2022, according to the Crop Production report issued by USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). Corn production is down 10% from last year, forecast at 15.1 billion bushels; soybean growers are expected to decrease their production 4% from 2022, forecast at 4.10 billion bushels.
Based on conditions as of October 1, corn yields are expected to average 173.0 bushels per harvested acre, down 0.8 bushel from the previous forecast and down 0.4 bushel from 2022. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 87.1 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast.
Also, based on conditions as of October 1, soybean yields are expected to average 49.6 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushel from the previous forecast but unchanged from 2022. Area harvested for beans is forecast at 82.8 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast, but down 4% from 2022.
The latest report also included a production forecast for cotton. All cotton production is forecast at 12.8 million 480-pound bales, down 2% from the previous forecast and down 11% from 2022. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 767 pounds per harvested acre, down 19 pounds from the previous forecast and down 183 pounds from 2022. Upland cotton production is forecast at 12.5 million 480-pound bales, down 2% from the previous forecast and down 11% from 2022. Pima cotton production is forecast at 356,000 bales, unchanged from the previous forecast but down 24% from 2022. All cotton area harvested is forecast at 8.02 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast, but up 10% from 2022.
Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between September 23 and October 5 to gather information on expected yield as of October. 1. The objective yield surveys for corn, cotton, and soybeans were conducted in the major producing states that usually account for about 75% of U.S. production. Randomly selected plots were revisited to make current counts.
The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail, internet, and personal enumeration. Approximately 7,800 producers were contacted during the survey period and asked questions about probable yield.
EDITOR’S TAKE:
Lower production but still large crops by historical standards. U.S. farmers are harvesting their fourth soybean crop in a row to exceed 4 billion bushels and the second corn crop in three years to top 15 billion bushels, according to USDA. A University of Missouri think tank projects nothing but 15-billion-bushel corn and 4-billion-bushel soybean crops for the next five years, thanks to large plantings and ever-increasing yields per acre.
However, the lower production, coupled with other global weather and geopolitical considerations, put a more solid foundation under prices for these commodities. After these announcements, China and Mexico were active buyers in the corn market. USDA analysts said the corn and soybean crops would fetch high season-average prices although a step down from the near-record prices paid for the 2022 crops. Corn would sell for an average $4.95 a bushel and soybeans for $12.90 a bushel.
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