Ukraine’s Grain Exports Down by Half Despite Unblocked Ports

Ukraine's grain exports are down 46% year over year at 2.65 million tonnes so far in the 2022/23 season, according to the agriculture ministry.

Grain exports for the 2021/22 season ending June 30 rose 8.5% to 48.5 million tonnes, driven by strong shipments before Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24.

Ukraine's grain exports have slumped since the start of the war because its Black Sea ports – a key route for shipments – were closed off, driving up global food prices and prompting fears of shortages in Africa and the Middle East.

At the end of July, three Black Sea ports were unblocked under the deal between Moscow and Kyiv, brokered by the United Nations and Turkey, which made it possible to send hundreds of thousands of tonnes of Ukrainian grain to buyers.

The ministry data showed that exports so far in 2022/23 included 1.75 million tonnes of corn, 658,000 tonnes of wheat and 226,000 tonnes of barley.

The overall volume includes 948,000 tonnes of grain exported in the first half of August. Ukraine exported 1.88 million tonnes in the first 15 days of August 2021.

The government has said that Ukraine could harvest at least 50 million tonnes of grain this year, compared with a record 86 million tonnes in 2021, because of the loss of land to Russian forces and lower grain yields.

Editor’s Take:

On the one hand, it is encouraging that at least some grain is able to be exported by Ukraine. That said, not having the ability to produce and export to capacity is detrimental to not only Ukraine, but also those who typically are customers for those exports. It also strains the Ukrainian consumer’s ability to purchase all the grain/food they desire. One positive is the continuing global price support for those commodities normally produced and sold by Ukraine.