The smallest U.S. wheat crop in decades continues to shrink due to weather issues and acreage cuts.
The USDA sees the crop at 1.03 billion bushels, 2% below May, as harvest moves forward, and 27% below 2025, with an average yield of 46.8 bushels per acre, down 0.8 on the month and 8.1 bushels on the year. Harvested area is pegged at 22.015 million acres, compared to 25.508 million a year ago.
From month-to-month, that includes a 3% decline for hard red winter to 496.886 million bushels, with soft red winter down less than 1% at 300.252 million, and white winter up more than 1% at 232.592 million bushels. Last year, hard red winter production was 804.443 million bushels, with soft red winter at 352.916 million and white winter at 244.195 million bushels.
Comparisons for certain states:
Illinois: 53.32 million bushels, compared to 61.6 million in 2025. Average Yield: 86 bushels per acre, compared to 84 a month ago and 88 a year ago. Harvested Area: 620,000 acres, compared to 700,000 last year.
Indiana: 20.01 million bushels, compared to 21.36 million in 2025. Average Yield: 87 bushels per acre, compared to 85 a month ago and 89 a year ago. Harvested Area: 230,000 acres, compared to 240,000 last year.
Kansas: 203 million bushels, compared to 346.8 million in 2025. Average Yield: 35 bushels per acre, compared to 37 a month ago and 51 a year ago. Harvested Area: 5.8 million acres, compared to 6.8 million last year.
Michigan: 42.75 million bushels, compared to 44.1 million in 2025. Average Yield: RECORD 90 bushels per acre, unchanged from both a month ago and a year ago. Harvested Area: 475,000 acres, compared to 490,000 last year.
Missouri: 30.96 million bushels, compared to 36.8 million in 2025. Average Yield: 72 bushels per acre, compared to 73 a month ago and 80 a year ago. Harvested Area: 430,000 acres, compared to 460,000 last year.
Ohio: 41.28 million bushels, compared to 45.58 million in 2025. Average Yield: 86 bushels per acre, compared to 85 a month ago and 86 a year ago. Harvested Area: 480,000 acres, compared to 530,000 last year.
South Dakota: 25.44 million bushels, compared to 31.5 million in 2025. Average Yield: 48 bushels per acre, compared to 48 a month ago and 50 a year ago. Harvested Area: 530,000 acres, compared to 630,000 last year.
The USDA’s next round of production projections is out July 10th.
EDITOR’S TAKE:
It is disappointing to see such a poor outcome for the wheat industry in general. Lower acreages and lower yields, primarily caused by weather related issues. The good news is that wheat prices have trended upward during the past year reaching a high of $6.88 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade in mid-May. Thus, the outlook for those with an average to slightly above average crop looks promising.
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