Speaking at USDA’s virtual Agricultural Outlook Forum, USDA Chief Economist, Seth Meyer, provided a broad outlook for U.S. agriculture. Here is an overview of key aspects of Dr. Meyer’s presentation.
Dr. Meyer noted that, “Fiscal Year (FY) 2021 ended with record exports ($172.2B) based on very strong commodity prices and exports supported by the U.S.-China Phase One Agreement. FY 2022 is looking to also be a record year. This strength is reflected in USDA’s revised forecast for U.S. agricultural trade in FY 2022, which was released last week with exports now forecast at a record $183.5 billion, or an increase of over $11.3 billion from FY 2021.”
However, Dr. Meyer cautioned that, “There are other global uncertainties that could affect the U.S. agricultural trade forecast in 2022. For example, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could have global economic and trade implications. Together the two countries account for almost a quarter of global grain exports. Although we may expect global and regional grain markets to reorient to alternative suppliers and markets which may limit direct effects on U.S. agricultural exports, short-term broader macro effects would reverberate through the global economy depending on the severity and duration of the conflict. Similarly, interlinkages through fertilizer and energy markets could have additional effects for agricultural producers across the world.”
“The U.S.-China trade relationship will also be a focus, given the importance of this market for U.S. agriculture,” Dr. Meyer added.
Turning to acreage prospects, Dr. Meyer explained that combined corn and soybean area is forecast at 180.0 million acres, slightly below the historical high of 180.6 million planted in 2021.
EDITOR’S TAKE:
Overall, 2022 is forecast to be another very positive year for U.S. agricultural producers. Geo-political events, however, cast a shadow over the outlook. The other always huge and unpredictable variable in the equation is weather. We can only hope for the best outcome with both factors. That said, with higher commodity prices currently offering farmers/ranchers ample opportunities to forward contract their crops/livestock, if they take advantage of those when available, it should be a very good year. That means more income and more spending power to purchase new trucks. Now, with AgTruckTrader.com going live, they can see what you have that can fulfill their needs. If you haven’t signed on yet, do so today. You will receive plenty of publicity from the AgTT website when it officially launches to farmers/ranchers during AgRally in conjunction with National Ag Day. Many great reasons to be encouraged about 2022!
