U.S. Hog Herd Lower, Farrowing Intentions Mixed

The U.S. hog and pig herd shrank over the past year. The USDA says the total number of hogs and pigs in the U.S. on September 1^st, 2026, was 74.302 million head, 2% lower than a year ago.

That includes a 2% decline in the market hog inventory to 68.427 million head and a dip of 1% in the breeding herd at 5.875 million head. For market hogs, all weight categories saw a year-over-year decrease of 2%.

The June to August pig crop was down 2% from last year as the number of sows farrowing that period fell 3%, but the number of pigs saved per sow was a record for the quarter at 11.96.

Farrowing intentions look mixed. USDA expects September through November farrowings to be 2% less than a year ago, while December through February intentions could be up 2%.

The numbers look near-term supportive for cash, wholesale, and futures prices, but that will also depend heavily on pork demand.

EDITOR’S TAKE:

Are the numbers a reaction to lower demand or are we seeing pork production declining similar to what happened with the beef herd? Thus far, there is no indication that demand has decreased; in fact, export demand from China and Mexico have increased. That scenario could possibly mean that in the short term prices for pork are likely to increase. The good news is that it takes a much shorter period to cycle into higher pork production.

Now might be a very good opportunity to target pork producers in your area as potential truck purchasers. Perhaps a special social media campaign or a mailer designed to entice them into your dealership might be in order.