U.S. Hog Herd Shrinks Year-Over-Year, Will Likely Fall Further

The U.S. hog herd got a little bit smaller over the past year.
The USDA says that at the start of September 2025, the U.S. hog inventory was 1% below September 1, 2024, at 74.472 million head, with the marketing herd 1% under last year at 68.538 million head and the breeding herd dipping 2% to 5.934 million head.

The June through August pig crop was down 3% at 34.078 million head due to a 3% decline in the number of sows farrowed, despite a record quarterly number of pigs saved per litter, at 11.82, an increase of 1%.

The U.S. hog herd will likely get even tighter in the coming months, with producers signaling September through November farrowings will fall 3% and that December through February could be slightly lower.

The numbers were generally below pre-report expectations and could be supportive to cash, wholesale, and futures prices.

EDITOR’S TAKE:

Once again, similar to beef and poultry, reduction of supply seems to be playing a dominant role in the pork industry. And with fewer farrowings this fall, supplies will probably fall even further, thus, pushing prices up at both the farm and retail levels.  Good news for pork producers, bad news for consumers. However, some good news for consumers is that hog recovery cycles are much shorter than say beef or dairy.

Livestock producers are better off financially. If you have any in your area, focus your attention on them. Point out that you can help lower their tax burden for 2025 when they purchase a new or used vehicle from you. Rapid depreciation is a huge boon to farmers/ranchers who need the ability to expense their purchases in the year purchased to reduce their tax burden.