According to a USDA survey, the 2022 U.S. almond crop may be down as much as 11% from last year because of weather and water woes. The smaller crop may help to correct an oversupply exacerbated by supply chain issues that slowed exports and left too many nuts unsold.
California expects to harvest 2.6 billion pounds of almonds this year, down 11% from last year. One of the culprits in this year’s lower yield estimate was a late February freeze that left some orchards without a harvestable crop. Drought conditions and lack of irrigation water for other areas compounded the losses.
The survey revealed which areas were hit hardest by water availability and freeze damage. Nut counts per tree were lowest in Colusa and Madera Counties, with the highest nut set in Merced and Tulare Counties. Padre and Independence varieties had the highest nut set.
Donny Hicks, a field rep with Olam Edible Nuts, said frost damage in the Sacramento Valley, coupled with irrigation availability along the west side of the valley decimated yield potentials. “Northern California growers had an earlier bloom amidst 80-degree weather in early February, followed weeks later by a deep freeze that dropped temperatures into the low 20s for several nights,” Hicks said.
Data reliability in the survey suggests an 80% confidence level that this year’s harvest will yield between 2.28 billion to 2.92 billion meat pounds. The survey is funded by the Almond Board of California.
A sense of cautious optimism permeated the California almond industry in the weeks leading up to the report, as the May position report of almond shipments and inventory revealed improved exports to some markets.
Blue Diamond Almonds wrote in a newsletter update that the May report “exceeded expectations for the third month in a row and posted the best shipment number of the crop season thus far.”
Those numbers suggest the carryout from this crop year to the next could be lower than the feared 900 million pounds once thought by industry leaders and bankers. “If there’s a silver lining, it’s that buyers still want California almonds,” Hicks stated.
Editor’s Take:
Almonds are one of those crops that cannot easily adjust production and supply to changing market conditions. Once the trees are planted and mature (after several years of non-bearing status) only Mother Nature can control the production. From there, it is up to the open markets to determine what happens to prices. Shipping slowdowns to export markets is one of those factors also beyond the control of producers, but can clearly have a significant impact on prices. Sometimes a slight correction is a good thing and can bring supply and demand back into balance. That appears to be the case with Almond production this year.
