The $1.7 Trillion Landlord: New USDA Data Reveals the Shifting Face of Ownership

Who owns the Heartland? New data reveals more than half of principal landlords have never farmed and a third are now aged 75 or older. While farm economics face tightening margins, the ground beneath them has never been more valuable.

New USDA data reveals a 47% surge in rented farmland value over the last decade, even as the footprint of available acreage shrinks. With $1.7 trillion in assets now held by a shifting demographic of landlords, the landscape of American agriculture is undergoing a transformation.

Per the 2024 Tenure, Ownership and Transition of Agricultural Land (TOTAL) survey, there are a little more than 2 million landowners renting out 347.8 million acres for agricultural production. That compares to 2% fewer landlords in 2014, but 10 years ago there was 353.8 million acres rented out.

Geographically, 87% of rented ag land is in the Midwest, Plains and West—leaving only 13% in the Atlantic and South regions.

Of the total landowners in 2024, 87% are non-operating landlords (1,830,043) renting out 276,082,757 acres. For acres owned by the share of non-operating landlords, privately owned land was 38%, trusts were 27%, and family-owned legal entities was 26%.

Nearly 52% of all the principal landlords have never farmed.

What Does This Mean for Land Values and Availability?

Despite challenging farm economics, limited inventory of land available for sale continues to support land values. And it’s juxtaposed with economists saying cash rent acre expansion comes at too high of a cost with low commodity prices and high input prices. There are not enough returns on corn and soybean production to provide both the landowner and the farmer with historical “normal” returns.

In 2024, landlords received $34.1 billion in rent payments, which is up 9% from 2014. However, the value of the land and buildings they rented out was $1.7 trillion, up 47% from 2014.

“About 5% of the nearly 900 million U.S. farmland acres, or about 43 million acres, is slated for ownership transfer in the next five years, not including farmland that is in or is expected to be put into wills or trusts,” said Joseph L. Parsons, NASS Administrator.

Per USDA, 10% of owned farmland is, or will be, placed in trust in the next five years, and another 15% is, or will be, written into a will in the next five years.

Looking at a shorter time horizon, the latest Farm Journal research shows nearly 15% of American cropland is projected to be “at risk” of changing hands within the next three years — including operations that downsize, sell, change management or change ownership through a will, trust, or other transference. Farm Journal data identifies the Midwest as the epicenter of this shift, with roughly 12 million acres likely to transition. Nationwide, that total reaches a staggering 44 million acres.

How Will Land be Transferred?

USDA predicts a small percentage of farmland will be available for purchase and asked its respondents to look beyond five years. For all farmland owned, the agency says 22.8 million acres will be sold to non-relatives, 12.8 will be sold to relatives, 7.4 million acres will be gifted or donated. More than 226.7 million acres will be kept or placed in a trust or will.

For more insight on landowner age and debt, in 2024, more than a third of non-operating landlords were 75 and over. Landlords 65+ held little debt, 21% of debt was owed by non-operating landlords. Landlords aged 64 or less held the most debt.

EDITOR’S TAKE:

Whew! A lot of dynamics at work when it comes to farmland ownership. Since the farm crisis in the 1980’s farmers have been more selective about owning land versus renting. It appears that renting continues to be a very large part of the overall crop and pastureland available. What is shocking to learn is just how much non-farmers/investors actually control. Should they decide to sell for commercial purposes, even more farmland would be lost forever. Somehow, we need to establish what it would require from a national security perspective to provide for our domestic needs and then make sure the land necessary to accommodate that amount is always available.

The one reassuring fact is that farmland continues to be a very good investment whether it is owned by non-farm property owners or a farm/ranch family. That means the farmer/rancher who owns their land should have a very solid financial balance sheet. For those prospective customers, it would be a good choice to promote CADFI. It is a finance plan that can match payment schedules to income or cash flow schedules.