Farm Incomes Rising in 2025 Due to Several Factors

Net farm incomes are expected to be higher in 2025 compared to 2024, not from cash prices for crop production but, from high livestock prices and direct government payments.

“We’ve got low cash prices for our row crop production, and for the most part, production expenses are – if not even – just slightly higher than they were a year ago, and yet, net farm income is expected to be significantly higher,” said Bryon Parman, North Dakota State University ag finance specialist, at the September NDSU Agricultural Markets and Situation Outlook Webinar.

While the USDA’s semi-annual U.S. net farm income and net cash farm income forecast is only a projection of where it expects income and expenses to be, the final numbers will come in the spring of 2026. The forecast includes actual numbers from 2005-2024.

The USDA forecast is a projection of where the current year is because it’s not known for sure how incomes are going to look from 2025.

In the September forecast, USDA expects income and expenses in 2025, adjusted for inflation, to end up at $180.7 billion, or 28.5 percent higher than 2024.

“A lot of what we have been hearing right now is how desperate times are for our producers, and if you looked at this number – just on its surface – you would say, ‘How can that be?’” Parman said.

USDA charts how production expenses, including labor, interest, rents and property taxes, are expected to increase while prices for crops are depressed.

Corn declined from $63 billion down to $61 billion for cash receipts, soybeans are down from $47 billion to $44 billion, and wheat declined from $11 billion to $10 billion.

“2024 had an increase in costs and then a decrease in most of our major row crop cash receipts for last year, and for the year that we're currently in, 2025, on inflation adjusted production expenses, they’re pretty close to where they were last year, maybe just a bit higher,” he said.

However, net farm income includes both crop and livestock production – the whole system. Cattle, and other livestock, are being sold for some record-high prices.

“Cattle and calves in 2025 are expected to have a strong year. The difference is a $17 billion increase in cash receipts for cattle and calves. That’s not because there’s a whole lot more cattle being sold – the price that’s being received for most of these cattle is just extraordinarily high,” Parman said.

From 2024-25, cash receipts show an expected increase in cattle and calves, from $112 billion in 2024 to $130 billion in 2025; broilers, from $45 billion to $47 billion; hogs, from $27 billion to $30 billion; and eggs, from $21 billion to $28.5 billion.

Some inputs have had slight or no change, including fuel, seed, pesticides, fertilizer and feed.

For farmers, 2024 did not seem like a high-income year, and net farm income was just average. On the other hand, net farm income for 2025 is expected to come in above average.

“We don’t think of 2024 as being a particularly strong year at all, and net cash farm income for 2024 was also right around average,” Parman said. “Then you look at 2025, and net farm income is comfortably above average.”

Additionally, direct government payments to producers will contribute to higher net farm income in 2025, according to USDA. Conservation payouts, a significantly smaller portion than the other payments, are also included.

“If you look at payments as a function of commodity prices, the bulk of this program was policy that was passed back in December of last year and then paid out through 2025,” he said.

EDITOR’S TAKE:

If this projection becomes a reality, it will be very good news for all farmers/ranchers. It will also mean improved demand for those trucks on your lot. Seldom are these forecasts off base by a wide margin, instead, they are typically pretty accurate when all is said and done. With that in mind, be sure you plan your messaging to include information about rapid depreciation as a result of the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill. Also, make sure you place that inventory on AgTruckTrader.com® so it is in plain sight for farmers and ranchers to see. Then consider how you might attract them into your dealership. Maybe it’s a special ag night just for farmers and ranchers to see all the new models, including the AGwagon, and to take a guided tour of your dealership. Or maybe it’s a post-harvest special on an oil change and lube job. No matter what, find a way to get them into your dealership and be sure to include a conversation with them about your CAD membership and how you support them.