USDA Reports Farm Sector Profits Forecast to Grow in 2025

USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS) releases farm income statement and balance sheet estimates and forecasts three times a year. ERS Economist Carrie Litkowski recently presented the September 2025 update to the farm sector income and wealth forecasts for calendar year 2025.

U.S. net cash farm income (NCFI), defined as gross cash income minus cash expenses, is forecast to increase by $36.5 billion (25.3 percent) from 2024 to $180.7 billion in 2025 in inflation adjusted dollars. U.S. net farm income (NFI) is forecast to increase by $48.8 billion (37.2 percent) to $179.8 billion in 2025.

Net farm income is a broader measure of farm sector profitability that incorporates noncash items, including changes in inventories, economic depreciation, and gross imputed rental income. Most of the projected increase in 2025 corresponds with higher direct government payments to farmers, projected to increase from $10.4 billion in 2024 to $40.5 billion in 2025.

This increase is expected largely because of supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance to farmers and ranchers from the American Relief Act of 2025, which authorized economic assistance payments to producers and payments for losses in 2023 and 2024.

Also contributing to the increase were animal and animal product cash receipts, forecast to increase by $23.2 billion, or 8.4 percent above 2024 levels. In contrast, crop cash receipts are forecast to decrease by $12.3 billion, or 4.9 percent from 2024.

If the 2025 forecasts are realized, NCFI and NFI would surpass their 2005-24 average but remain below their all-time highs in 2022.

EDITOR’S TAKE:

This forecast stands in sharp contrast to the news we often hear these days about the ag economy, especially crop producers. But the analysis breaks down the numbers and helps us better understand what is really going on. Government assistance has reappeared as a major contributor to net farm income. And as we have been highlighting for some time now, livestock producers are doing very well, thank you very much. All that said, overall, net farm income is projected to increase substantially versus 2024 figures. No matter the source, that is good news for our farmers and ranchers.

Keep this forecast in mind when deciding who you should target as potential customers. Farmers/ranchers offer a wonderful opportunity to increase your truck sales. And for those who do claim to be struggling with their finances, you have a couple of excellent tools. One is AgPack® with the potential of nearly $50,000 in exclusive rebates and discounts on the amazing products and services offered by your AgPack® partners. The other tool is CADFI, which offers you the ability to match their payment schedule to their income stream or cash flow.