Brazil on Track for Record Soybean Exports as U.S. Loses Market Share

Brazil is on pace to reach record soybean export volumes in 2025.

Ag economist Jim McCormick with AgMarket.Net says this isn’t a surprise. “What it is, you’re seeing Brazil take over our market share,” he said. “The fact of the matter, plain and simple, is China has not been buying our beans. We know that due to the trade war situation right now.”

He tells Brownfield Ag News that Brazil’s soy exports are expected to hit more than 102 million metric tons through the end of the month, surpassing yearly totals from 2024 and 2023.

“We missed the September window, we missed the October window, and it looks like we’ll miss the November window as China has essentially secured their needs for those shipping periods from South America, both from Brazil and Argentina.”

McCormick says U.S.-China negotiations have gone the wrong direction which is leading to more purchases of Brazilian crops.

EDITOR’S TAKE:

Mr. McCormick is right. We are losing market share, especially in soybeans to Brazil. China has essentially turned off any orders from the U.S. and has turned to other suppliers instead. There is no question that this strategy is impacting our farmers/ranchers tremendously. Typically, nearly half of the U.S. soybean crop is exported with China being our number one purchaser. That leaves a very large gap to fill. It appears that the government is going to step in to help financially with talks of $10 to $15 billion in aid payments possible. However, with the government shut down, there is no way to know when such payments might be made.

While we’re waiting, it is still a good idea to put your inventory on AgTruckTrader.com®. When the payments do arrive and farmers/ranchers are ready to purchase or lease that new or qualified used truck, they’ll know exactly where to go!