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Beef Forecast Driven by Demand, Price

Beef export numbers remained strong in 2023 for the U.S., even as they were down from the record levels of 2022. The increase in beef exports over the past 47 years has helped build additional value for fed beef in the U.S.

"Beef exports have been down from the record numbers a year ago, but the parts we are exporting is adding value to the beef carcasses," said John Hinners, senior vice president of industry relations for the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). "The variety meats which aren't consumed much in the U.S. have value in other countries."

While beef exports were below the record totals for the previous year, December 2023 exports were the largest since August, and December export value increased 10% year over year. Nearly 14% of U.S. beef product is sent out of the U.S., including mostly tripe, tongue, heart and kidney, with the top five importers being Japan, China, Taiwan, South Korea and Canada.

The 2023 beef exports totaled 1.29 million metric tons (MMT) with a value of $860.8 million, down 12% from the 2022 record. While export value fell 15% to just under $10 billion, this was still the third-highest annual value for beef exports.

"There is no question that 2023 was a challenging year for U.S. beef exports, especially in our largest Asian markets where economic conditions have weighed on foodservice demand," USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom said. "Of course, we were also challenged on the supply side, with less product available for export. But, nevertheless, U.S. beef achieved excellent growth in Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean, and we are encouraged by the December uptick in demand in South Korea and China. It was also great to see such strong per-head export value in December, topping $430."

Hinners said 2022 showed the highest beef exports ever, which was supported by a strong dollar and great demand by international consumers because of the quality of the product. This has continued to help the growing demand of beef in each country.

Hinners went on to say, 2024 will have challenges, starting with the U.S. having the smallest cow herd in 50 years. While exports remain strong, domestic demand will also need to be met. USDA all-fresh beef prices are expected to average a record $7.90 per pound, which could affect some consumption.

The demand for global proteins continues to be strong, but the price pressure could direct some markets to other proteins. By the end of 2023, U.S. pork exports were up 10% over a year ago, the largest since May 2021. Export values increased 11% to $765.8 million, which was also the highest since May 2021.

"2023 saw tremendous growth in global demand for U.S. pork, and it came at a time when the U.S. industry needed it most," said Halstrom. "The expansion of U.S. pork's presence in Mexico has been remarkable, but the great news certainly doesn't end there. We are very encouraged by the robust demand we've seen throughout the Western Hemisphere and in a number of Asia-Pacific markets as well."

EDITOR’S TAKE:

We often mention the importance of exports in providing additional support for agricultural commodities like beef and pork. On the one hand it is very encouraging to hear reports like this, where demand, while down slightly in 2023, remains strong. This is especially true with some of our leading trade partners. However, part of the reason exports fell was due to a much smaller overall herd size in the U.S. And that trend is taking its sweet time to correct to more “normal” levels. That is also why consumers are paying higher prices for beef at the grocery meat counter. Beef producers use a lot of trucks in their operations. That means opportunity for parts, service and sales. Don’t overlook these important customers.

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