In a recent report, two UC-Davis analysts highlighted that satisfying sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) goals would require a significant increase in soybean plantings, almost by 50%. Conversely, relying solely on corn ethanol would necessitate a lesser increase in land area, around 9%, due to its higher yields per acre.
Professor Aaron Smith and doctoral student Andrew Swanson, in an article for the American Enterprise Institute, cautioned that a swift expansion into SAF could reignite debates over the food versus fuel dilemma, potentially prompting changes in land use for conservation and crop production akin to those seen during the implementation of Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) policies.
To produce 3 billion gallons of SAF by 2030, as targeted by the current administration, an estimated 8 to 11 million acres of corn or 35 to 50 million acres of soybeans would be required, depending on the rate of crop yield improvements over the next six years. Currently, SAF production stands at 16 million gallons annually.
Corn and soybeans collectively occupy a substantial portion of agricultural land in the U.S., totaling nearly 179 million acres last year. Various strategies can be considered to meet the increased demand for these crops, including reallocating land from other competing crops.
EDITOR’S TAKE:
There are several takeaways one can garner from this article. First, these are merely best estimates based on weather and current yield patterns for corn and soybeans. Researchers are enhancing yields, particularly in soybeans, vis a vis, genetic modifications at a rather rapid pace. Second, it is unlikely that SAF will be all corn or soybean based. It more likely will be multiple technologies. Third, and perhaps most importantly, this report shines a spotlight on the need for continued technology advancement, as well as the need to protect farmland from urban encroachment or other uses. Not only is agriculture being asked to feed an ever-expanding global population, but also to supply fuel that is environmentally friendly and sustainable. This will eventually require politicians to make some difficult policy decisions that may not always be popular. The good news – agriculture is the one industry that is always going to be in demand. Agriculture will become even more important over time. So, if you’re looking for those long-term relationships, the ones that will help drive your business forward – look no further than to farmers/ranchers! Just make sure they are at the top of your customer prospect list!
