12 Questions for Ag in 2026

1. Do farmland values and cash rents continue to defy economic headwinds?Will low commodity prices with high land rents compared to farm returns continue. Also, farmland continues to enjoy – and be priced at – historically low rent-to-value ratios. Will 2026 bring these in line?
2. Another year of record (or near record) government payments?The 2025-announced farmer bridge payment will hit mailboxes (or ACH wires) in early 2026. What’s unclear is how much ARC and PLC (from 2025 production) is possible in the fall, or if additional rounds of ad hoc payments are possible. Oh, and since Congress passed another one-year farm bill expansion in late 2025, they will be working on (or talking about) the farm bill again.
3. Who will be the latest trade winners and losers?For most crops, the risk will be more retaliatory tariffs levied by trade partners. It’s still unclear how China’s temporary silent embargo on U.S. ag products in 2025 will be resolved. But that’s not all: livestock and other import-sensitive crops might face the realities of U.S. policies to increase supplies and reduce consumer price pressure.

      The 2025 trade winner might have been corn. Can those wins be parlayed into              2026?

4. Do energy prices moderate?Energy was 4.2% higher in 2025, and electricity was 6.9% higher. While oil prices have resisted, natural gas prices are higher. It’s unclear where things go from here, as the story of electricity prices varies by state, and there is no simple explanation for why.
5. Any policy breakthroughs for domestic usage?Speaking of energy, will 2026 be the year that agriculture gets a domestic demand breakthrough that leads to E15, sustainable aviation fuel, or more soybeans crushed for biofuels? These big opportunities have been discussed for a few years, but have, thus far, been elusive.
6. Does the Fed stick to its soft landing?With inflation running warm and labor cool, 2026 might be the year when the Fed’s attempt at a soft landing gets difficult. For what it’s worth, there will likely be a new Fed chair. It’s worth mentioning that price inflation (measured by CPI and PCI) has an unmeasured cousin – asset value inflation.
7. How will the midterm elections shake up and shake out?Congress is sorting through a list of resignations, retirements, and pursuits of better opportunities. We’re tempted to write that it’s hard to believe it’s another big election year, but it now feels like we are in a never-ending campaign cycle. Call us cynical, but we aren’t optimistic that the 2026 election will get D.C. (or the state capitals) focused on the important problems or reasonable solutions needed. Not yet at least.  
8. Will the deficit, federal debt, or exchange rates create headaches?While inflation and employment dominated the economic conversations in 2025, the deficit and federal debt are out of whack. Piling on with tariffs and trade flow changes, could exchange rates show pressure? In short, don’t be surprised if a new economic issue or concern creeps up.
9. Does farm financial deterioration pile on?At present, budgets point to déjà vu for crop and livestock producers. First, there is hope for budget improvement via cost or output prices. That said, the biggest risk might be the continued erosion of financial conditions. Will working capital and debt delinquencies stay in check another year?
10. Ag competition scrutiny heating up?From cattle outputs to crop inputs, there are several DOJ or USTR investigations underway. It’s hard to tell whether these will make any difference, or whether Ronald Reagan’s nine most terrifying words are at play.  
11. Geopolitical Clarity?As we write this, tensions with and around Venezuela are front and center. Who would have anticipated this a year ago? Ukraine and Russia seem to be locked in a stalemate. Tensions in the Middle East have eased from a year ago, but many, many questions remain. While trade captures a lot of attention in agriculture, it’s important to remember there are a lot of geopolitical balls in the air.
12. Do Grain Prices Improve? Commodity markets have been a mixed bag; will that trend continue? Crop producers felt this discrepancy as grains and oilseeds remained stuck at low levels, while fertilizer prices rose year after year. Recently, spectacular gains in the metals market have caught people’s attention.

      Right now, we are leaning toward ample supplies of most grains and oilseed. Will          some factor – such as weather or a demand shift – drive an improvement?

Editor’s Take:

It’s tempting to ask if conditions will return to normal. Aside from the inevitable question of, “what is normal” – perhaps the unsettled reality is that the farm economy is searching for a new normal. A new equilibrium. Don’t let the constant news cycle leave you distracted in 2026. Most of the items on this list are out of our sphere of control or influence. That said, any one or combination of these items can greatly influence the kind of year we have in agriculture for 2026. At this point in time the crystal ball is still a little mirky.

But honestly, deep down, we at TCAG believe that 2026 is going to be a very good year for agriculture and, hence, for CAD members. Be sure to emphasize AgPack® in your promotions on AgTruckTrader.com®. And remember to use CAD Protect as a way to protect your farm/ranch customer’s truck investment.