Will South American Soybean Production Influence U.S. Crop Acreage?

Market analyst Arlan Suderman with StoneX expects U.S. corn acres to approach 92 million in 2023. He says that would be about a three-and-a-half-million acre increase from 2022.

“What will make the final determination? It really comes down to South America’s soybean crop. If the world sees that South America overall has a much larger crop, that’s going to hurt U.S. soybean demand.”

And if there is an acreage adjustment, he says it will probably come mostly from the Plains and in the South. “We anticipate seeing a decrease in cotton acres this year, maybe a million, million-and-a-half or more acres could be lost there.”

Suderman also says he wouldn’t be surprised by an overall net gain in both corn and soybean acres next year with beans as high as 88.5 million.

EDITOR’S TAKE:

This analysis demonstrates just how interdependent U.S. agriculture is with our major competitors. It will be interesting to see how accurate Suderman’s predictions are when USDA begins releasing planting intentions in February. In addition to acreage alone, the value of the U.S. dollar also plays a role in determining how competitive our crops can be on the global market. Add to that the carryover supplies from the prior year and it all is part of the mix that determines supply and demand for various commodities like corn and soybeans. Let’s face it, corn and soybeans are the major crops produced in the U.S. In large part, these two crops will give us a pretty good picture of what we can expect in commodity markets as far as prices go in 2023. And, when prices and yields are favorable as they were in 2021 and 2022, farmers are in a good mood and purchase more trucks!