It’s no secret that China’s been buying significantly fewer bushels of U.S. corn. Despite that...
U.S. corn exports have been a roller coaster in recent years. During the 2020/21 marketing year, Chinese buyers surprised the agricultural commodity market by purchasing a lot of U.S. corn. That year, 2.7 billion bushels were exported (Figure 1). By 2022/23, however, exports fell to just 1.7 billion bushels.
While the initial buying spree and contraction were easy to summarize, the recent recovery hasn’t had a headline-capturing buyer. The goal for this week is to understand a bit about who’s been buying U.S. corn.
Figure 1. U.S. corn exports, 2015/16 to 2025/26 marketing year. Data Source: USDA FAS and AEI.ag calculations.
Recent years
Figure 2 shows activity for major U.S. corn buyers between 2019/20 and 2023/24. As expected, China stands out. However, it’s worth noting that other countries (Mexico, Japan, Colombia, and South Korea) also pulled back on their U.S. corn purchases in 2021/22 and 2022/23. The chart shows activity for all other countries as well (in orange) that also contracted noticeably.
For 2023/24 – the most recent complete year of data – exports increased for select countries, except China. Mexico posted significant increases, buying an additional 271 million bushels, or 46% more.
Figure 2. Reported corn export sales, 2020/21 to 2024/24, select countries. Data source: USDA FAS and AEI.ag calculations.
2024/25 activity
Figure 1 shows that the expectation for 2024/25 exports is 16% higher than in 2023/24. Figure 3 answers the question of “who’s buying?” The five countries with the biggest year-over-year increases have been South Korea, Spain, Japan, Vietnam, and Colombia. The chart specifically shows 2023/24 exports through mid-June (in blue) and 2024/25 activity (in red) for the same period.
Collectively, those five countries have purchased an additional 352 million bushels. Not shown is that China’s decline continues, nearly 100 million bushels lower.
Mexico is notably missing from Figure 3. While corn exports were strongly higher between 2022/23 and 2023/24, the +20 million worth of additional purchases for this market year failed to make the top five.
The most important insight from Figure 3 is the relative increase for some countries. Japan’s addition of 78 million bushels worth of purchases through mid-June represents a 23% increase. However, corn sales to South Korea, Spain, and Vietnam for 2024/25 increased by more than 100%.
Figure 3. Reported corn export sales 2023/24 and 2024/25, year-to- date (mid-June), select countries. Data source: USDA FAS and AEI.ag calculations.
Wrapping it up
Who’s buying more U.S. corn? The easiest answer is “almost everyone.” When comparing 2023/24 and 2024/25 purchases, the USDA reported 17 additional countries bought U.S. corn. Of the 51 purchasing nations this year, only six posted lower activity (Canada and China were among these six).
EDITOR’S TAKE:
It’s hard to summarize the improvements in corn exports. First, China’s exit has largely been replaced by other nations. Initially, it was Mexico’s big 2023/24 purchases. Most recently, Japan and Colombia, frequent U.S. corn buyers, have followed. There are also a handful of countries with large percentage increases.
The unknown, of course, is the durability of these new purchases. China’s activity proved short-lived, and it’s entirely too soon to know how long South Korea, Spain, Vietnam, and others will keep making large U.S. corn purchases.
Diversification, whether in the stock market or ag exports, is critical for long-term success. Increased efforts by USDA and commodity organizations, among others, have been a saving grace for several agricultural commodities! USDA Secretary Rollins has vowed to keep increasing efforts to expand markets for U.S. agricultural products. Such initiatives are essential for a continuing vital ag sector. Help support these efforts by featuring ag facts on your website or social media posts. And don’t forget to mention that you are a CAD member!
