The USDA raised its forecast of prices for corn, soybeans, and wheat at its recent Ag Outlook Forum, partly because of acreage shifts.
Chief economist Justin Benavidez reduced total planted acreage estimates by about 1.5 million acres for 2026.
“The big story here, the swap between corn and bean acres, leaving us with about 94 million acres of corn, 85 million acres of beans, 45 million acres of wheat on the year, 9.2 million acres of cotton, and 2.5 million acres of rice,” he explains.
Benavidez says government payments are expected to make up a quarter of net farm cash income this year and were factored into increases. “Overall, we do expect an increase in net cash farm income for all of the commodities listed, with a mix of improved prices as well as some additional support out of a more robust safety net.”
Corn production is still projected to be the second largest on record, despite a slightly lower yield estimate. The agency expects corn exports to drop slightly because of competition from South America and modest global demand growth.
USDA says stronger soybean profitability is likely compared to other crops because of improved export demand, and expected crop rotations across the Corn Belt and the Delta should cause an increase in acreage. Yield numbers were left unchanged.
Farm gate prices were all increased a dime to total $4.20 a bushel for corn, $10.30 for soybeans, and $5 a bushel for wheat in the February outlook.
The USDA also forecasts 2026–2027 corn exports at 3.1 billion bushels, down 200 million bushels from 2025–2026 due to rising competition from South American suppliers, while soybean exports were seen rising by 125 million bushels to a two-year high of 1.7 billion bushels.
Demand from U.S. soybean processors that crush beans into soymeal for livestock feed and soy oil for food and biofuel was projected at a record 2.655 billion bushels.
U.S. wheat stocks were forecast at 933 million bushels by the end of the 2026–2027 marketing year, nearly unchanged from a year earlier as lower exports following bumper crops in rival suppliers Argentina and Australia offset a drop in U.S. production. The USDA projected wheat exports for 2026–2027 at 850 million bushels, down 50 million from the current marketing year.
EDITOR’S TAKE:
What can we glean from these forecasts? The crop sector will experience slightly improved results in 2026. Reasons outlined in the article spell out the conditions that contribute most to the early season estimates. No one will know for sure until the crops are actually in the ground and we can determine just how weather patterns will impact the outcomes. Other factors to keep an eye on include geopolitical considerations and competition from our major competitors, especially Brazil.
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