The National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) of USDA places hay in two categories, alfalfa and other hay. Nationwide, other hay production totaled 64.84 million tons in 2022, down 9% from the prior year. Drought and high fertilizer prices took a significant bite out of hay production across the U.S. It's the biggest decline in 11 years according to NASS.
Extension Economist James Mitchell for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture expects farmers will pay more for hay in the current marketing year. According to the report, May 1 hay stocks were tight, totaling 16.77 million tons or 7 percent lower year over year. May 1 stocks, combined with lower 2022 hay production, put hay supplies at the lowest level on record since the data collection began in 1974.
Production declines
Nationwide, other hay production totaled 64.84 million tons in 2022, down 9 percent from the prior year, with Arkansas seeing a 16 percent decline. Texas, the nation’s largest hay-producing state, produced 6.15 million tons, a 40 percent decline compared to 2021. “Most Southern Plains and Southeast states had double-digit hay production declines,” said Mitchell. Mississippi saw a 16 percent decline, Tennessee a 13 percent decline, and Kentucky a 20 percent decline. Florida bucked the trend, seeing a 7 percent increase in hay production.
Yields down
“Expensive fertilizer and poor precipitation impacted yields,” Mitchell said. “U.S. hay yields averaged 1.87 tons per acre or 6 percent lower year over year. Overall, other hay acreage fell 2 percent to 34.63 acres. According to Mitchell, declining cattle inventories, expensive inputs, and high crop prices all likely contributed to the decline in 2022 hay acreage.
Higher prices
“Like other commodities, price comparisons are based on the marketing year,” Mitchell said. “The hay marketing year begins in May and ends in April. For the May 2021-April 2022 marketing year, prices averaged $147 per ton. For the May 2022-April 2023 marketing year, we forecast prices to average $170 per ton.”
EDITOR’S TAKE:
For those selling hay this is very good news! For any farmer/rancher who needs to purchase hay, this is not good news. They rely on plentiful supplies and reasonable hay prices to help maintain their profit margins. The end result will really depend on several factors. With recent rains in many parts of the country, hay production could be up again this year. The prices for beef from auctions and packers will also play an important role in determining the impact on a rancher’s bottom line. Solid export and domestic demand will command higher sales prices for the cattle, especially in light of lower cattle inventories. Dairy producers and horse owners will also likely feel the pinch, but once again it is too early to determine what the overall impact of higher hay prices will be at the end of 2023.
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