U.S. ethanol is poised for a second straight year of record high exports as global demand for the corn-based fuel climbs higher, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently announced.
Through the first seven months of 2025, U.S. fuel ethanol shipments to foreign buyers averaged 138,000 barrels per day, the highest January through July average in data going back to 2010, and 9% more than 2024’s annual record. The increase is among few bright spots in a tough economy for America’s row crops.
“We’re expecting 2 billion-plus gallons of exports,” Scott Richman, Chief Economist for the Renewable Fuel Association, said in an interview. “It only looks moderately higher than last year, but what has to be remembered is that 2024 was a lot higher than any prior years, so exceeding that is a good accomplishment.”
The outlook for next year is also robust, with EIA predicting exports will stay near all-time highs, in part due to expected record big corn harvests. The boost helps offset a slump in domestic consumption of ethanol that’s been hurt by lower gasoline demand. The U.S., the world’s No. 1 producer and shipper of fuel ethanol, mixes almost all motor gasoline with a minimum of 10% ethanol.
“We forecast consumption to remain below pre-pandemic levels as motor gasoline consumption remains flat,” EIA said.
Export gains are being spurred by greater demand from the Netherlands, home to some of Europe’s busiest trade ports. The U.S. also sent ample amounts of the corn biofuel to top importer Canada, as well as the U.K., which forged a wide-ranging trade deal with the Trump administration last May. India is a significant buyer of American ethanol that it uses strictly for industrial applications because the Asian country bars using it for powering vehicles.
“India is a top five market for us, but if we were able to directly access the fuel market, we think that could grow further,” Richman said.
With President Donald Trump’s push for new U.S. trade deals worldwide, market watchers are closely eyeing India as well as China, the world’s biggest buyer of agriculture-related goods. An accord with China could revive the country’s purchases of American ethanol.
“That’s kind of a wild card,” Richman said, noting that along with China using trade policy as a tool for political leverage, it also has a strong focus on electric vehicles.
After the U.S.-China tariff wars of Trump’s first term, the U.S. has only shipped small amounts of ethanol to the Asian nation.
“If there were any way that could be opened up and liberalized a little bit, of course we’d be very interested,” the RFA economist said.
EDITOR’S TAKE:
I know we discuss ethanol quite often in the AIR newsletter. The reason is, corn is the largest grown crop in the U.S. and ethanol has become a significant part of the corn market and establishing corn prices. It is always good news when exports are accelerating, thus creating more opportunities for growth in the ethanol market. Couple that with the potential of E-15 being sold year-round and the future is very bright for corn.
Don’t give up on those corn farmers in your area. The current slump in corn prices is going to improve soon, especially with news like greater ethanol exports. So, keep them on your customer prospect list, remind them about AgPack® offers worth up to nearly $50,000 in exclusive rebates and discounts. Also be sure to tell them about special financing options with CADFI, designed specifically with farmers/ranchers in mind!
