Record El Nino Likely to Impact Midwestern Harvest Season

The chief atmospheric scientist with Nutrien Ag Solutions says he expects a record setting El Nino to have significant impacts this fall.

Eric Snodgrass tells Brownfield Ag News, “Currently we would rank this one as strong, and based on what we know about the water temperatures still yet to surface over parts of the equatorial Pacific, this will be an historic El Nino breaking records in terms of how warm it’s going to be.”

He says forecasts are calling for water temperatures to rise more than three degrees Celsius.

“That number doesn’t sound like a lot, but across 7,000 miles of open ocean in the equatorial Pacific, we measure the total heat content in zettajoules, which is just a tremendous, tremendous amount of energy shift in the entire climate system during these El Nino events.”

He says it’s likely to greatly reduce the number of Atlantic hurricanes this season, and…

“I think we’re going to see much tighter harvest windows because El Ninos are a bit wetter fall for the Midwestern United States, which tends to take our typical number of days, which we have about 40 days of good harvest and field work weather, and it takes it down to about 32 days. That’s about a 20% loss.”

Snodgrass says producers should start considering their plans for a wet harvest season and prioritize field activities accordingly.

EDITOR’S TAKE:

Just how much this weather pattern will impact harvest this year is only a guess at this point, but history might be a good predictor. Mother Nature is signaling that conditions could be challenging this fall and now is the time to make preparations. Modifications to equipment, such as tracks on combines, might be in order. The best advice is don’t wait until the last minute, be prepared for what is likely to be a very short and challenging harvest season.

You can assist farmers and ranchers in your area in preparing by offering pre-harvest parts and service specials to help them get ahead of the game.