No End in Sight for Record Cattle, Beef Prices

Strong supply fundamentals continue to push cattle and beef prices higher, with new records on a nearly weekly basis into May.

Feeder and fed cattle prices have not shown much seasonal tendency thus far, but they may flatten out or even pull back slightly into summer. Cattle prices are expected to generally trend higher for the balance of the year, albeit perhaps at a slower pace than recently.

Boxed beef cutout values also pushed higher into May, possibly reaching a seasonal peak heading into summer grilling season. By the third week of May, Choice boxed beef prices were at near-record levels (only exceeded by a brief period during the pandemic in 2020).

April monthly retail beef prices were $8.50 per pound for all-fresh beef, another record high.

Beef production tightens

After holding steady in 2024, beef production appears to be decreasing in 2025.

Fed beef (from fed steer and heifer slaughter) is still higher year over year for the year to date, but it has been down 3.4% from one year ago in the last six weeks into mid-May. Fed beef production is declining as a result of decreased steer and heifer slaughter, despite carcass weights being heavier year over year.

Non-fed beef (from cull cows and bulls) is down 9.9% thus far in the year and is down 11.4% in the past six weeks.

Total cow slaughter is down 13.0% year over year, with beef cow slaughter down 17.2% and dairy cow slaughter down 8.6% year over year thus far in 2025.

Total beef production is down 4.6% in the past six weeks and down 0.4% year over year for the year to date.

Impact of screwworm on market

On May 11, the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service announced that the Mexican border would close again to imports of live cattle, horses and bison.

Additional detections of New World Screwworm (NWS) indicate the pest has continued to spread northward in Mexico. About 223,000 head of Mexican cattle were imported in the 15 weeks the border was open from early February to May 11.

The border is likely to be closed for some time until containment and control of NWS can be verified in Mexico, which will further tighten supply and affect price.

Farmers start retaining heifers

While data is lacking to confirm if cow-calf producers are retaining heifers, there is some data to show what producers are not doing.

They are not feeding as many heifers in feedlots. April quarterly data showed the smallest percentage of heifers in feedlots in five years. Fewer heifers on feed contributes to smaller feedlot totals.

The May Cattle on Feed report pegged feedlot inventories at 11.376 million head, down 1.5% year over year. It is the sixth consecutive month of year-over-year declines in feedlot inventories. Weekly slaughter data shows that heifer slaughter is down 2.8% thus far in 2025, and it is down 7% year over year in the most recent six weeks of data.

Improved pasture and hay conditions in some regions are likely supporting heifer retention. However, continuing drought conditions and threats combined with continued producer and lender caution probably means that heifer retention is moving relatively slowly.

Little or no beef cow herd growth is expected in 2025. Prospects for 2026 remain limited as well.

EDITOR’S TAKE:

Yes, we have reported on this topic in prior editions of the AIR. In our defense, we keep thinking and hoping that supplies would improve and consumer prices at retail would subside slightly. However, that does not appear to be happening yet, or at all! Instead, supplies are even tighter than expected and prices at the farm level and consumer level are going higher. Good for the beef producer, but not for the consumers who enjoy that juicy burger or a steak on occasion.

You should keep beef producers at the very top of your customer prospect list. Their income potential in 2025 is excellent. They will be looking for ways to lower their tax burden by purchasing things like new trucks or SUV’s. It would be prudent to make sure your inventory stays on AgTruckTrader.com®. If you don’t have it on our website yet and need some assistance, be sure to contact us and we will gladly provide the help you need.