Nearly 60% of U.S. Export Growth Came from Canada and Mexico

Trade relations with Canada and Mexico are once again in the headlines. As all sides navigate the USMCA review – with the threat of tariffs looming – it’s worth reviewing how important these two markets are for U.S. agricultural exports, especially in recent years.

Total trade

Since the 1960s, the value of ag exports has trended higher (Figure 1). Part of the increase is due to higher commodity prices, so gains aren’t solely from additional volume.

Between 2017 and 2019, the value of ag exports averaged $158b annually. After peaking at $213b in 2022 (when ag prices were high), activity between 2023 and 2025 has averaged $189b annually. In total, activity increased by nearly 20%.

                    Figure 1. Value of U.S. ag exports, 1967 to 2025. Data source: USDA GATS and AEI.ag calculations.

Canada and Mexico

Historically, Canada and Mexico have been top destinations for U.S. ag exports. Between the mid-2000s and the late 2010s, Canada typically accounted for 16% of U.S. ag exports, while Mexico accounted for 12%.

In recent years, both countries have purchased a larger share of U.S. ag exports, but this is more evident in Mexico. In 2025, each country accounted for 17% of the value of U.S. ag exports. Collectively, they account for 34% of U.S. ag exports, besting the previous high (32% in 2006), and well above the 10% to 25% they accounted for throughout the 1990s.

Taken together, Figures 1 and 2 reveal that U.S. ag exports to Canada and Mexico grew faster than total ag exports. To that point, Canada and Mexico together accounted for 59% of the $31b increase between the 2017-2019 and 2023-2025 averages.

                    Figure 2. Value of U.S. ag exports, share purchased by Canada and Mexico, 1967 to 2025.                                                    Data source:   USDA GATS and AEI.ag calculations.

Wrapping it up

It’s good to see the value of all ag exports trending higher over time. What’s notable is that just two countries have accounted for much of the increase in recent years.

While there are many moving parts and details in any trade agreement, the high-level takeaway is that Canada and Mexico are more consequential markets for U.S. agriculture than they were just a few years ago. For U.S. agricultural exports, the stakes of current trade efforts are even higher than when NAFTA gave way to USMCA.

EDITOR’S TAKE:

There should be no doubt that Canada and Mexico are and have been significant trading partners for decades. However, in more recent years their combined impact on U.S. export sales has become even more pronounced. The current review of the USMCA agreement can have very consequential outcomes, especially if things do not go well. There are some indications already that Canada has strengthened its resolve to develop a more diverse approach to courting additional ag trade partnerships and placing less reliance on the U.S. Will Mexico do the same? It is a high-stakes game, one U.S. agriculture cannot afford to lose!

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