An ag economist with Ohio State University says the Iranian conflict is having an impact on U.S. ag trade around the world.
Ian Sheldon says President Trump recently threatened to walk back a signed trade agreement with the United Kingdom.
“The IMF (International Monetary Fund) is forecasting the UK to suffer the most out of all of the G7 countries because of the energy price hikes, Sheldon says. “This latest action is creating additional uncertainty for UK exporters and American exporters to the UK.”
The U.S.-UK Economic Prosperity Deal, signed in 2025, lowered tariff rate quotas, and expanded market access for U.S. beef and ethanol.
Sheldon suggests that the renegotiation of the deal could impact future market access for those products. “This just adds to the trade policy uncertainty, exchange rate uncertainty, uncertainty around energy, fertilizer prices, and future export markets,” he says.
Sheldon says working to continue to expand ag exports will remain critical for the United States to help balance large domestic supplies.
The UK is currently the fourteenth largest export market for U.S. agricultural goods.
EDITOR’S TAKE:
There is no doubt that the Iranian conflict will reshape global trade patterns. There is uncertainty around what might happen to the NATO alliance going forward. What kind of agreement is reached with Iran, if any, will clearly have an impact on a number of commodities, such as fertilizer. And it is still unclear what kind of agreement will manifest itself between China and the U.S. And there are several other situations lurking in the geopolitical background, such as Cuba and Venezuela, that could provide new opportunities for cooperation and trade in the future.
The combination of all these factors is more likely to be positive for U.S. agriculture when all is said and done. It is very possible that by late 2026 and into 2027 the tables could turn significantly for our farmers and ranchers. Might we suggest that you put an AGwagon or two on your lot. As the tide turns, they will be looking to upgrade their equipment and trucks. AGwagon is the only truck specifically designed by farmers/ranchers and rodeo folks, especially for farmers, ranchers and rodeo lovers.
