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Steady investment in ‘green’ biofuels has promised new market demand for farmers and ethanol producers, but will that continue in 2025?
Optimism remains high that growth in the biofuels industry will continue under the new Trump administration. In late February, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announced year-round E15 sales in eight Midwest states.
“Today’s decision underscores EPA’s commitment to consumer access to E15 while ensuring a smooth transition for fuel suppliers and refiners,” said EPA Administrator Zeldin in a press release.
In Congress, permanent E15 bills with broad bi-partisan support have been reintroduced in both chambers. A permanent E15 rule would increase ethanol demand by 5 to 7 billion gallons a year.
“President Trump has been, I believe, fairly unequivocal in stating his support for the importance of biofuels in the larger energy independence picture, and he also understands how important it is to our farmers and our ranchers who produce it,” said U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins during the recent Top Producer Summit.
While the industry is watching the administration closely, green fuel mandates around the globe helped spark a flurry of investment in the renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) markets.
Farmdoc Daily at the University of Illinois counted 23 renewable diesel plants in operation by the end of 2026 with a total capacity of 5.261 billion gallons.
“I do believe U.S. agriculture’s future is in green diesel and green fuels, including sustainable aviation fuel. That’s where our demand growth is going forward,” says Dan Basse, President and CEO of AgResource. “It takes policy and it takes someone at the helm with a budget to make sure that it happens.”
As those investments mature and as a compliment to renewable diesel, manufacturers are also looking to grow the SAF market. Farmdoc Daily estimates that in 2025, there will be six plants online with a capacity to produce 834 million gallons.
(U.S. Energy Information Administration)
“Just in the U.S. alone, there’s about 30 billion gallons of conventional jet fuel used every year,” says Jeff Davidman, the Vice President of State and Local Government Affairs at Delta Airlines. “The U.S. airline industry has made a commitment as an industry to replace 10% of their conventional jet fuel with SAF by 2030. That’s 3 billion gallons. In 2022, there were 25 million gallons made.”
This means the industry can scale quickly to meet those targets as long as the demand for these fuels continues. Delta isn’t alone - other airlines like Southwest touted SAF usage in 2024. The airline is reportedly cutting staff, and looking to pull back on sustainable targets.
Investments in these “green” fuels continue to be announced. On February 3rd, Gevo, Inc. announced the acquisition of Red Tail Energy’s ethanol production plant in Richardton, ND, where it will focus on SAF.
“We’re primarily focused on sustainable aviation fuel and commercializing essentially a brand-new industry,” says Kent Hartwig, Director of State Government Affairs at Gevo. “We’ve been able to utilize ag products for renewable fuels for four decades now. As we see changes in fuel usage, that’s going to mean potential changes in ethanol production. How do we continue to sustain this industry? It’s through new markets. Having a new outlet, like sustainable aviation fuel, is an important market driver to keep farm profitability high.”
Even as a new administration takes over in Washington, Hartwig remains bullish despite the vocal calls to increase domestic oil production.
“The President has been crystal clear on his administration’s desire to see domestic energy dominance,” Hartwig says. “We’ve seen multiple executive orders that have laid out his plan for how we continue to be dominant in that area and in both he specifically calls out biofuels. So, while ‘drill, baby, drill’ is what the President has been saying, I also think he means ‘grow, baby, grow’.”
Ag Secretary Rollins echoed those same sentiments during a fireside chat at Top Producer Summit in February.
“Remember during his first primary election, President Trump was the first major candidate to support biofuels, and I think that carried him through Iowa in many ways,” Rollins says. “He hasn’t forgotten that.”
“I think what you see in the policy space is the need to have these fuels available in the future,” says Cory-Ann Wind, Director of State Regulatory Affairs for Clean Fuels Alliance America. Her organization focuses on advancing biodiesel, renewable diesel and SAF policies.
“I think as long as the regulations or the policies evolve, you’re going to see more and more innovation in this industry,” Wind says.
According to Wind, regardless of what happens in Washington, state mandates and private industry goals are helping keep the momentum going. “We’re looking at any mode of transportation that uses diesel,” Wind says. “We’re talking about trucks, ag equipment, construction equipment, long-haul semis and even marine.”
As global demand for these new-era biofuels continues to rise, it’s building a domestic market with the potential to improve prices on the farm.
EDITOR’S TAKE:
As the market for biofuels continues to evolve and expand, so will the market for agricultural products, like corn and soybeans. The expansion on the fuel front will provide even greater price stability and opportunity for higher net farm income. Although some of the expansion is simply taking up slack from declining exports of ag products, the longer-term prospects will certainly provide growth in the demand for corn and soybeans, the two largest crops produced in the U.S. Add to that efforts to expand market access with new trading partners and the impact can be very substantial. When farmers/ranchers have money, they invest in products and services that make their operation more productive and efficient - trucks, tractors, combines, technology, etc. Did I mention trucks? They buy nearly a million of them every single year. If they’re having a particularly good year, they might purchase multiple units. That is why we encourage you to put your inventory on AgTruckTrader.com® and then keep it up to date!
