Farmer Sentiment Weakens, But Farmers Say U.S. Headed in Right Direction

The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer index declined for the second month in a row. The July index fell 11 points below June's reading and was fueled by U.S. farmers' weaker perceptions regarding both current conditions and their expectations for the future. The July Current Conditions Index fell 17 points while the Future Expectations Index declined 7 points, both compared to a month earlier.

Weaker income prospects in 2025 were largely responsible for farmers' weaker appraisal of current conditions. Although all three principal farmer sentiment indices were lower in July than a month earlier, producer sentiment remains much more positive than at this time last year, with nearly three-quarters of July's survey respondents reporting that the U.S. is headed "in the right direction."

The July barometer survey took place from July 7-11, 2025.

To further gauge U.S. farmers' outlook regarding trade and policy, this month's survey included the following question: "Would you say things in the United States today are generally headed in the right direction or on the wrong track?" Seventy-four percent of respondents said the U.S. is headed in the "right direction."

Wrapping Up

U.S. farmers' sentiment declined in July as weaker farm income prospects dimmed producers' view of current conditions and their future expectations. Despite a weaker crop income outlook, just 11% of crop producers said they expect farmland cash rental rates to decline, with a majority reporting that they expect rental rates to stay about the same. Helping to support producers' farmland value and rental rate outlook is farmers' expectation for a stronger farm income safety net, with nearly one-third (31%) of U.S. producers saying they expect the 2025 Farm Bill to provide a stronger safety net than the previous Farm Bill. Producers in July were somewhat more optimistic about U.S. agricultural trade prospects than in June, while (as previously stated) nearly three-fourths (74%) of U.S. farmers responding to the survey reported that they feel that things in the U.S. are headed "in the right direction."

EDITOR’S TAKE:

These are interesting times for agriculture. Livestock and specialty crop producers are doing very well, thank you. Row crop and grain producers are having a rougher go of it. The Purdue survey results seem to represent more cash grain producers and, thus, reflect a less optimistic outlook for income in 2025. That said, the survey also demonstrates the hope for a brighter future, with 74% of respondents saying they feel like ag policy and the ag economy are headed in the right direction. I will be curious to see how all this plays out once harvest is completed and tax time arrives. My sense is that with the new tax laws most farmers/ranchers will be looking for ways to legally lower their tax bill.

That’s where you come into the picture. It is always good to remind them that the new tax provisions allow for 100% expensing in the current tax year. It is also a great time to remind them about AgPack®. AgPack® can provide them with an immediate ROTI (Return on Truck Investment). By taking advantage of nearly $50,000 in exclusive rebates and discounts, farmers and ranchers can lower their operating expenses and keep more money in their bank accounts.