China’s soybean importers are boosting purchases from Argentina and Uruguay over the next year to fill the supply gap left by the absence of U.S. shipments as the trade war drags on between Washington and Beijing, according to two trade sources - a Singapore-based trader at an international company which sells soybeans to China and a second person who trades soybeans for China.
Chinese processors may buy up to 10 million metric tons of soybeans from the two South American exporters during the 2025/26 marketing year ending next August, which would be a record, said the sources. They have already booked 2.43 million tons from Argentina and Uruguay for shipment from September to May next year.
From September 2024 to July 2025, China imported 5 million tons of soybeans from the two countries, according to data from the General Administration of Customs.
The rise in supply from the two Latin American producers will add to large imports from Brazil to China, dealing another blow to U.S. exporters as the world’s biggest soybean importer reduces its dependence on U.S. farm products.
With more soybean suppliers to China, the country will need less from the U.S., which will help in the trade war, said the Singapore-based trader. This year, China has not booked any U.S. soybean purchases for shipment in the fourth quarter, which is typically the key sales period for the United States as freshly harvested supplies reach the market.
By mid-August, Chinese buyers had booked 1.575 million tons for September loading from Argentina and Uruguay, 660,000 tons for October, and smaller volumes of 66,000 tons each for November, December, and May 2026.
The U.S. supplied 12% of China’s agricultural imports in 2024, down from 20% in 2016, while Brazil supplied 22% last year, up from 14% in 2016, according to Chinese customs data.
The second trader said the higher imports from Argentina and Uruguay are primarily because China is not buying U.S. beans and also because both countries have had bumper harvests. Argentina’s 2024/25 soybean harvest was 50.9 million tons, U.S. Department of Agriculture data showed, up from 48.2 million tons a year ago, and 25 million tons in 2022/23 when a severe drought curbed yields.
In Uruguay, soybean output was 4.2 million tons in the 2024/25 period, up from 3.3 million tons a year ago, the USDA data showed.
EDITOR’S TAKE:
The Chinese are once again playing hardball in the high-stakes game of tariffs/trade relations with the U.S. Agriculture has become a primary target for their retaliatory strategies. Farmers/ranchers remain optimistic that a pro-American, pro-agriculture agreement will be reached between the two sparring parties before the end of the year. In the meantime, however, U.S. farmers/ranchers will suffer the consequences of not selling their products to China, one of their top trading partners. But don’t despair, USDA and commodity organizations are cooperating to seek out new and profitable alternative markets.
Help out where and how you can, to help ease the strain on farmers/ranchers in your area. Perhaps some exclusive deals involving your parts and/or service departments. Maybe advertising that AgPack® savings are in addition to any OEM or dealership incentives, thus creating a phenomenal deal. And, of course, they can finance their truck(s) purchase using CADFI that can match their payment schedule with their income flow.
