Brazil is expected to harvest a record wheat crop of 9 million tons in 2022. Brazilian growers are in the process of sowing the largest area for this crop in the past 32 years, according to a survey released by Conab, the country's food supply and statistics agency.
Brazil has already planted around 65% of the wheat area this season, estimated at 2.9 million hectares (7.166 million acres). Local farmers expanded acreage by 6.6%, just below the 1990 level of 3.28 million hectares.
Conab also forecasts yields will rise 10.3% from the previous season to 3 tons of wheat per hectare. In 1990, wheat yields were one ton per hectare, according to their data.
The forecast suggests farmers boosted plantings as a result of global supply disruption fears related to the war in Ukraine, which caused prices to spike.
Brazilian wheat exports rose almost fivefold to 2.4 million tons in the first half of the year, according to grain exporter group Anec.
Ukraine's agriculture minister said last month Russia's invasion of Ukraine would create a global wheat shortage for at least three seasons. Russia itself is the world's largest wheat exporter.
With a larger domestic wheat supply, Conab reduced the forecast for Brazilian imports in the 2021/2022 harvest by 500,000 tons to 6 million tons. The old crop year ends in July, when Brazil's exports were estimated at 3.2 million tons.
For 2022/2023, the forecast is for Brazilian wheat exports to be 2.5 million tons, while wheat imports were estimated at 6.5 million tons.
Editor’s Take:
The increased production in Brazil will certainly help offset some of the expected shortfall in the Ukraine. This should be good news for consumers in nations typically dependent on wheat from the Ukraine. Although this may dampen wheat prices a bit, it should not be a dramatic or noticeable change, thus, leaving plenty of margin for wheat producers across the globe and especially in the U.S. Make sure you are getting the attention of wheat producers in your market area. They should be looking to lease or purchase a truck or two as harvest ends.
