An ag economist says retail egg prices declined in March as the poultry sector works to recover from losses due to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (Bird Flu).
Bernt Nelson with the American Farm Bureau Federation says prices are down 57 percent from this time last year.
“We saw an uptick in January and February in avian influenza cases,” he says. “In March, we saw those cases drop off a little bit. That really speaks to the volatility of these markets right now in relationship to high path avian influenza.”
But he says detections continue to impact egg producers.
“With estimates for the cost of production, we’re looking for the farm level for conventional egg production at around 78 to 80 cents per dozen,” he says. “When we look at prices for the farmer that are sitting at right around that $1.02 to $1.06 per dozen. There’s not a lot of wiggle room there for margin.”
Nelson says if cases of HPAI continue to increase over the next several months, it could send retail eggs prices back higher.
Spring migration of wild fowl runs from March to June. Wild birds, specifically ducks and geese are the primary carriers of HPAI and can increase the risk of transmitting the virus to domestic poultry and backyard flocks.
The USDA says the current outbreak of avian influenza has impacted more than 197 million birds. Avian influenza does not present a food safety risk.
EDITOR’S TAKE:
Who says there is no good news these days when it comes to inflation. You may recall that President Trump vowed to bring egg prices down substantially when he took office again in January of 2025. It appears he has been successful based on this report. As the article points out, however, this success story is subject to change with a larger scale outbreak of bird flu. Unfortunately, it is spread by wild animals over which we have little or no control. Consumers want lower prices, farmers want bird flu to subside, and the Trump Administration wants inflation to subside even faster. With all the geopolitical unrest, at the moment, it’s difficult to predict what is going to happen.
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